We introduce JEEM, a benchmark designed to evaluate Vision-Language Models (VLMs) on visual understanding across four Arabic-speaking countries: Jordan, The Emirates, Egypt, and Morocco. JEEM includes the tasks of image captioning and visual question answering, and features culturally rich and regionally diverse content. This dataset aims to assess the ability of VLMs to generalize across dialects and accurately interpret cultural elements in visual contexts. In an evaluation of five prominent open-source Arabic VLMs and GPT-4V, we find that the Arabic VLMs consistently underperform, struggling with both visual understanding and dialect-specific generation. While GPT-4V ranks best in this comparison, the model's linguistic competence varies across dialects, and its visual understanding capabilities lag behind. This underscores the need for more inclusive models and the value of culturally-diverse evaluation paradigms.

Time series forecasting (TSF) is an essential branch of machine learning with various applications. Most methods for TSF focus on constructing different networks to extract better information and improve performance. However, practical application data contain different internal mechanisms, resulting in a mixture of multiple patterns. That is, the model's ability to fit different patterns is different and generates different errors. In order to solve this problem, we propose an end-to-end framework, namely probability pattern-guided time series forecasting (PPGF). PPGF reformulates the TSF problem as a forecasting task guided by probabilistic pattern classification. Firstly, we propose the grouping strategy to approach forecasting problems as classification and alleviate the impact of data imbalance on classification. Secondly, we predict in the corresponding class interval to guarantee the consistency of classification and forecasting. In addition, True Class Probability (TCP) is introduced to pay more attention to the difficult samples to improve the classification accuracy. Detailedly, PPGF classifies the different patterns to determine which one the target value may belong to and estimates it accurately in the corresponding interval. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, we conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets, and PPGF achieves significant performance improvements over several baseline methods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of TCP and the necessity of consistency between classification and forecasting are proved in the experiments. All data and codes are available online: https://github.com/syrGitHub/PPGF.

This paper explores how to enhance existing masked time-series modeling by randomly dropping sub-sequence level patches of time series. On this basis, a simple yet effective method named DropPatch is proposed, which has two remarkable advantages: 1) It improves the pre-training efficiency by a square-level advantage; 2) It provides additional advantages for modeling in scenarios such as in-domain, cross-domain, few-shot learning and cold start. This paper conducts comprehensive experiments to verify the effectiveness of the method and analyze its internal mechanism. Empirically, DropPatch strengthens the attention mechanism, reduces information redundancy and serves as an efficient means of data augmentation. Theoretically, it is proved that DropPatch slows down the rate at which the Transformer representations collapse into the rank-1 linear subspace by randomly dropping patches, thus optimizing the quality of the learned representations

Time series forecasting is vital in many real-world applications, yet developing models that generalize well on unseen relevant domains -- such as forecasting web traffic data on new platforms/websites or estimating e-commerce demand in new regions -- remains underexplored. Existing forecasting models often struggle with domain shifts in time series data, as the temporal patterns involve complex components like trends, seasonality, etc. While some prior work addresses this by matching feature distributions across domains or disentangling domain-shared features using label information, they fail to reveal insights into the latent temporal dependencies, which are critical for identifying common patterns across domains and achieving generalization. We propose a framework for domain generalization in time series forecasting by mining the latent factors that govern temporal dependencies across domains. Our approach uses a decomposition-based architecture with a new Conditional $\beta$-Variational Autoencoder (VAE), wherein time series data is first decomposed into trend-cyclical and seasonal components, each modeled independently through separate $\beta$-VAE modules. The $\beta$-VAE aims to capture disentangled latent factors that control temporal dependencies across domains. We enhance the learning of domain-specific information with a decoder-conditional design and introduce domain regularization to improve the separation of domain-shared and domain-specific latent factors. Our proposed method is flexible and can be applied to various time series forecasting models, enabling effective domain generalization with simplicity and efficiency. We validate its effectiveness on five real-world time series datasets, covering web traffic, e-commerce, finance and power consumption, demonstrating improved generalization performance over state-of-the-art methods.

Wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide, necessitating advanced predictive methods for effective mitigation. This study introduces a novel and comprehensive dataset specifically designed for wildfire prediction in Morocco, addressing its unique geographical and climatic challenges. By integrating satellite observations and ground station data, we compile essential environmental indicators such as vegetation health (NDVI), population density, soil moisture levels, and meteorological data aimed at predicting next-day wildfire occurrences with high accuracy. Our methodology incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning algorithms, demonstrating superior performance in capturing wildfire dynamics compared to traditional models. Preliminary results show that models using this dataset achieve an accuracy of up to 90%, significantly improving prediction capabilities. The public availability of this dataset fosters scientific collaboration, aiming to refine predictive models and develop innovative wildfire management strategies. Our work not only advances the technical field of dataset creation but also emphasizes the necessity for localized research in underrepresented regions, providing a scalable model for other areas facing similar environmental challenges.

This paper proposes an early detection method for cluster structural changes. Cluster structure refers to discrete structural characteristics, such as the number of clusters, when data are represented using finite mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models. We focused on scenarios in which the cluster structure gradually changed over time. For finite mixture models, the concept of mixture complexity (MC) measures the continuous cluster size by considering the cluster proportion bias and overlap between clusters. In this paper, we propose MC fusion as an extension of MC to handle situations in which multiple mixture numbers are possible in a finite mixture model. By incorporating the fusion of multiple models, our approach accurately captured the cluster structure during transitional periods of gradual change. Moreover, we introduce a method for detecting changes in the cluster structure by examining the transition of MC fusion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through empirical analysis using both artificial and real-world datasets.

Soil moisture is one of the primary hydrological state (memory) variables in terrestrial systems (Dobriyal et al. 2012; Rossato et al. 2017a), and is one of the primary controls for agriculture and water management (Dobriyal et al. 2012; Rossato et al. 2017b). Soil moisture affects evapotranspiration and vegetation water availability, which are at the core of the climate-carbon cycle (Falloon et al. 2011) and play an important role in hydrological risks such as floods, drought, erosion, and landslides (Kim et al. 2019; Legates et al. 2011; Tramblay et al. 2012). Accurate measurement of soil moisture has numerous downstream benefits (Moran et al. 2015) including reduced water wastage by better understanding and managing the consumption of water (Brocca et al. 2018; Foster, Mieno, and Brozović 2020), utilising smarter irrigation methods (Kumar et al. 2014) and effective canal water management (Zafar, Prathapar, and Bastiaanssen 2021). The most accurate way to measure soil moisture is via ground-based methods such as direct gravimetric measurements (Klute 1986) or indirect methods such as dielectric reflectometry, capacitance charge, etc. (Bittelli 2011), which in-situ sensors utilize (Walker, Willgoose, and Kalma 2004). However, in-situ sensors are difficult to scale spatially, and are expensive to install and maintain.

In this context, defining and analysing their mobility is particularly important. A mobility model describes the behaviour of an entity considering its capacities, possible moves and speed. The mobility models are described either analytically at the individual level, or by the interactions between the parts of the system (between UAVs, UAVs and planes, UAVs and points to survey, etc.). The resulting behaviours described with these simple rules can induce the emergence of a global intelligent behaviour. Inversely, from the resulting behaviour of such a swarm, these initial simple rules are hard to discover.

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate prediction, characterization, and attribution of atmospheric EEs is therefore a key research field, in which many groups are currently working by applying different methodologies and computational tools. Machine Learning (ML) methods have arisen in the last years as powerful techniques to tackle many of the problems related to atmospheric EEs. This paper reviews the ML algorithms applied to the analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of the most important atmospheric EEs. A summary of the most used ML techniques in this area, and a comprehensive critical review of literature related to ML in EEs, are provided. A number of examples is discussed and perspectives and outlooks on the field are drawn.